Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
